After a disappointing 2023 campaign, new manager Stephen Voght and this year’s Guardians are off to a hot start. Sitting with a 10-5 record and a difficult schedule in the weeks ahead, it’s time to look at the stats and ask the question, is this sustainable?
This year’s success starts with the top half of this order having found their stride and carried a majority of the load to start this year, despite an underwhelming start for Jose Rameriez. At the top of the lineup, Steven Kwan has been seeing the ball incredibly well with a .356 batting average. However, Kwan’s start to the season captures a greater overall problem in this team’s offense, this being the lack of walks. Being that this year’s team simply does not have many players with consistent homerun potential, the first key to sustaining this success is increasing walk percentage. Being a small market franchise, small ball will always be a part of the Guardians identity, and that starts with walking. The next step of sustaining success is finding ways to advance runners on offense, which the Guardians have done well so far. Cleveland ranks 7th in stolen bases this year, thanks to the back half of the order finding ways to steal bases. Players like Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman, Ramon Laureuno who are statistically below average hitters have found ways to find their way into scoring position.
Andres Gimenez has also bounced back after his sophomore slump last season, currently holding a .290 batting average and .764 On Base plus slugging percentage. Gimenez’s main impact has come defensively for the Guardians. At 2nd base, Gimenez is tied for 1st all of the league in defensive WAR (Wins above replacement). With Brayan Rocchio having some defensive lapses this year, it will be key for Gimenez to continue being one of the best defensive infielders in all of baseball.
Offensively, the biggest factor by far has been Josh Naylor. Naylor is hitting the best he ever has, sitting with a 1.116 On base + Slugging percentage, which ranks 3rd in the AL. Naylor has also killed his weaknesses from previous years, as his walk rates are up and his strike rates are down. The fact of the matter is, the concern about Naylor has never been his ability. After a rough adjustment period when he first appeared in Cleveland, he has settled in, and made major strides every year throughout his career. The real concern about Naylor is his health status. The truth is that baseball alone is an incredibly difficult sport, playing 162 games in a 187 day stretch, which takes a significant role on one’s body. Not only this, but Naylors size and stature of 5’11 250 pounds only makes it harder to stay healthy throughout the season. Naylor has had significant injuries throughout his career, something Cleveland cannot afford this year if they want to sustain this success.
The first key comes from giving Naylor the DH roll more often. Though Naylor is a strong defender at first base, he does not need that extra stress on his body. But who can Cleveland replace him at first? Who better than the number 54 overall prospect Kyle Manzardo, who had an extremely strong spring training slashing .381/.458/.476. However, don’t expect to see Manzardo in the lineup until June, as Cleveland gains an extra year of control over him due to service time rules. In the meantime, Gabriel Arias would make for a strong first baseman to give Naylor time off. Arias is hitting at rates he never has in his career, with a .910 On base + Slugging percentage. At only 24 years old, there is still tons of room for improvement as he could greatly benefit from more at bats and more time in the infield.
The service time rule also applies to top prospect Chase DeLauter, who had a fantastic spring training, and would be an extremely strong option in the outfield to provide a spark hitting wise. With some regression expected from the top of the order, it will be key for Manzardo and DeLauter to have standout rookie years, creating a spark for the at times inconsistent offense.
With the offense’s strong performance so far, a majority of the current question marks surrounding this team come from starting pitching. The first and most obvious massive blow came when Shane Bieber announced he would miss the rest of the year due to Tommy John surgery. The news was even more devastating after Bieber’s two fantastic starts, in which he didn’t allow a single run. On top of this, Triston Mckenzie, someone who had been rumored to need Tommy John, has had no control over his pitches and is off to a very rough start. Mckenzie missed significant time last year due to an elbow injury, giving even more concern for him missing time down the road this season.
This offseason, Guardians top pitching prospect Daniel Espino announced he would be missing the whole 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, this being his second season ending shoulder surgery since last season. Espino has been riddled with injuries, which has led to him not pitching a full season since 2021. Other top pitching prospects haven’t been able to escape the injury bug either, with the 10th ranked prospect in the Guardians system, pitcher Joey Cantillo was ruled out for 8-10 weeks in late March due to a hamstring injury. With the injuries being so bad across the Guardians staff, it would be smart to trade for a back-rotation depth piece, as the Guardians simply don’t have enough bodies.
There is some good news as Gavin Willaims is making progress from his elbow injury that caused him to miss all of spring training, as he is expected to pitch in a sim game this week. However, expect him to take his time throughout his rehab starts in the minors, as he needs time to knock off the rust due to having to spring training.
As of now, it’s up to management to find a replacement for the lack of depth. Thankfully, the bullpen this year has been elite and provides multiple long relief options. Xavion Curry pitched 5 shutout innings yesterday against Boston and has a history of being able to go deep into games. Hunter Gattis also was a starting pitcher earlier in his career, and would be a strong starting option with his incredible start, as he’s thrown 7.2 scoreless innings this year.
The rest of the bullpen has been incredibly strong as well. Outside of Clase’s blown save on Sunday against the Yankees, he has been shut down this year with a 1.29 ERA. The 24 year old Cade Smith has come out of nowhere, throwing 9 shutout innings in relief so far this year. With Tim Herrin and Nick Sandlin carrying ERA’s under 2.5, the whole bullpen is exceeding expectations.
With all of this in mind, this brings the question, is this sustainable a start? Both yes, and no. Offensively, Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan are due for regression after their hot start. However, with Jose Rameriez, the overall most talented hitter off to a slow start, expect him to heat up and look like his old self. The top of this lineup will need to continue to perform. A deep run in October doesn’t require an offense that lives and dies but the homerun ball, but there needs to be some aspect of power in this lineup As far as the rest of the line-up, nobody is significantly over performing. People like Tyler Freeman, Will Brennan, Brayan Rocchio and Ramon Laureano have all had relatively average seasons compared to their expectations. If this year’s team wants to go as far as winning the AL Central and a deep run in the playoffs, the back end of this lineup needs to stick to what they do best: putting the ball in play and making the most of it. Yes, this isn’t always the formula to success, but with some of the below average hitters on this team, it is key that they minimize strikeouts, and put the ball in play as often as possible, doing absolutely anything to put pressure on the other team’s defense. In the 2022 postseason, the Guardians found themselves 1 game away from an ALCS, making this run through constantly putting the ball in play. When the steaks are highest in October, teams make more mental errors and tend to botch routine plays that were automatic 2 months prior. Whether it is a blooper that barely makes it out of the field or a slow swinging bunt, these outcomes will put pressure on teams and win games.
When it comes to pitching, almost all of the staff’s success relies on the overall health of the unit. A healthy Gavin Williams will be key, as well as keeping him, Tanner Biebe and Logan Allen out of a dreaded sophomore slump. As well as staying healthy, the starting unit needs to fix the struggle of going deep into games. Even with the bullpen being elite so far, loading bullpen innings up early in the season does not end well. With injury concerns and overall fatigue, it is key that starters can consistently make it to the 6th inning and beyond to keep the bullpen healthy down the road.
Even with the Bieber injury being a massive blow to this team, the start of this season has looked promising. Though it’s difficult to take away much from an 11-5 start due to sample size, the offense has taken massive strides that show this team can compete in October. If the pitching staff can stay healthy and the offense hits at this high of a clip, don’t be surprised if you see the Cleveland Guardians on your TV screen in October.
