Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens, 3 p.m., CBS

For the 6th year in a row, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs find themselves in the AFC championship game, this time outside of Arrowhead stadium for only the 2nd time in Mahomes’s playoff career. Opposing them is this year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson, and arguably the league’s best defense, as Baltimore hosts their first AFC championship game since 1971. Mahomes and Jackson meet for the 5th time in their respective careers, as Mahomes has the upper hand with a 3-1 record, with the two most recently meeting in Baltimore two years ago where Lamar got his first and only win against Mahomes. 

The game was a shootout, as a fourth-quarter comeback lifted Baltimore to a 36-35 win in a barnburner of a Sunday Night game. This year, however, I don’t see the same shootout-type game happening. Kansas City and Baltimore have the two best defenses in terms of opponents’ points per game, as Baltimore edges out Kansas City by one point for the best-scoring defense in the league. Both defenses’ success is rooted in their secondaries, both giving up 200 passing yards per game while having an elite pass rush, both in the top 4 of sack percentage per play. Mahomes and Jackson will both be facing the best defense either have seen all year, as the pass rush of both sides will wreak havoc early.  

The key for Baltimore’s defense will be to steal possessions from Kansas City, taking advantage of Kansas City’s weak exterior offensive line. If they can Mahomes into uncomfortable throws, leading to the interception that might just be what gives them the edge. With this year being Mahomes’s worst surrounding team, the Ravens have an opportunity to take advantage of a weak Kansas City receiving core. Offensively, John Harbaugh is in for a challenge with Kansas’s defense, so look for the Ravens to continue to use Lamar in the run game even more than usual, as the Chiefs have had games where they struggle to contain opposing quarterbacks, as last week Josh Allen ran for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

For Kansas City, it’s going to come down to dominating the run game in what is expected to be a cold and rainy environment. The less risk there is for turnovers, the higher chance Kansas City has to make the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have lost games from costly drops and interceptions, something they cannot have under any circumstances. The more they can limit the time that Lamar Jackson doesn’t have the ball, the better off they are.

On paper, the Ravens look like the better team. Baltimore’s overall offensive production is significantly better than the Chiefs, and defensively they edge them out statistically. They have the home-field advantage, and are less banged up, thanks to their wild-card round bye. With all of this, I’d be picking Baltimore to move on, right? Wrong. As great of a team as the Ravens are, they simply don’t have Patrick Mahomes. The Ravens showed major signs of weakness offensively in the first half against the Texans, and I think that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolia will be able to recreate the same havoc, this time for 4 quarters. The Chiefs are playing their best football offensively at the moment, and I see them continuing to play a clean game, as Mahomes controls the game, bringing Kansas City to their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, 6:30 p.m., FOX

For the 3rd year in a row, San Francisco appears in the NFC championship, this time hosting America’s sweetheart, the Detroit Lions. Detroit has been the story of this year’s playoffs, winning multiple playoff games for the first time since 1957, back when the NFL had just 12 teams. Behind Detroit’s historical run is Jerod Goff, the Lions leader of an aggressive and explosive offense. Behind Goff’s success has been Amon Ra St-Brown, who currently ranks third league-wide in both receptions and receiving yards. Unfortunately for Detroit’s lethal passing offense, they haven’t seen a defense like San Francisco.

First-year defensive coordinator Steve Wilks continued where current Texans Coach Demico Ryans left off last year, leading San Francisco to one of the league’s best defenses. The 49er’s defense is covered with pro-bowl-level players, starting with last year’s DPOY Nick Bosa. A lot of this game defensively will come down to Bosa and San Fransisco’s defensive line ability to collapse the pocket on Goff, as they struggled to get pressure on Jordan Love in their divisional-round matchup. With Detroit missing their left guard Jonah Jackson, limiting this 49ers pass rush will be a tall task.

Offensively for the 49ers, their Swiss army knife Deebo Samuel has been cleared after a shoulder injury, which ended up burning San Francisco in their divisional round game. Kyle Shanahan uses Samuel in every aspect of their game to move the ball. Whether it’s a run or a pass, Detroit will constantly have eyes on Deebo Samuel. When the ball isn’t in Deebo Samuel’s hands, the Lions will have to try to stop the league’s best running back, Christian McCaffrey, who similar to Samuel, will be included in both the run and pass game. The best matchup of this game doesn’t come from either of these two, but rather a battle of old versus young, as the league’s best Linemen, Trent Williams has the task of protecting Brock Purdy from Aiden Hutchinson. If Detroit wants to win this game, they will have to find a way to get Hutchinson in the pocket and force Prudy into bad throws.

While Detroit will need a lot from their defense if they want to stand a chance, they will also need Jerod Goff’s best game. Goff will need to play a clean game and keep the ball away from Kyle Shanahan’s offense, while David Montgomery and rookie star Jahmyr Gibbs will take care of business on the ground. After Aaron Jones’ strong performance in last week’s game, Detroit should be able to sustain long possessions that drain time off the clock, keeping them in the game.

Even beyond the weak spots of San Francisco Detroit just doesn’t have the defense to stop one of the most lethal offenses in the league. From arguably the best tight end in George Kittle, to McCaffery and Samuel, there is just too much talent for Detroit to get the stops needed to win the game. I think Dan Campbell’s offense has enough juice in the tank to keep it close for 4 quarters, but I think McCaffrry and Shanahan will bleed the last few minutes of the game, as Detroit’s Cinderella run ends as San Francisco heads to Las Vegas. 

Prediction: San Francisco 31, Detroit 24