Although the school year is just getting underway, it is already time to turn our attention towards the upcoming midterm election this November. In Ohio, all United States House seats, one US Senate seat, and the position of governor are up for grabs on November 8th. With inflation on the rise, international tensions with Russia and Ukraine, and monumental Supreme Court rulings, the election season is gearing up to be one for the history books.  

In Ohio, as of 2022, there are 16 United States House seats spread out across the entire state. The main districts that include northeast Ohio are #7, #11, #13, #14. In a perfect world, each district would have roughly 500,000 registered and active voters, which means a slight increase or decrease in the voter population could easily sway the outcome, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. For Ohio voters in 2020, House District 1 was remarkably close, with the result being a mere 17,000-vote difference. In the 2022 election, the entire district map of Ohio has been redrawn via an Ohio Supreme Court Order.  The maps were forced to be redrawn after the Ohio Supreme Court decided that “the commission did not attempt to draw a plan that meets the standard in Section 6(A)—that no plan shall be drawn primarily to favor
a political party” (League of Women Voters of Ohio v. Ohio Redistricting Comm).  

 Local House districts don’t tend to swing from election to election, but it is crucial for the existing voter population to stay vigilant, and all potential new voters to make their voices heard. The following house district overviews are all located in the vicinity of northeast Ohio.  

Ohio District 7 includes a small portion of Cuyahoga County, the entirety of Wayne and Medina counties, and a small portion of Holmes County, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. With the redrawing of the districts, no historical data can be directly taken from past general elections of this district or any other district in the state. However, from election results in the primaries, approximately 20,000 voters cast a democratic ballot, where over 50,000 voters cast a republican one. The Republicans are most likely to hold on to this seat. The candidates include Max Miller (R), and Matthew Diemer (D).  

Ohio District 11 includes only about half of Cuyahoga County due to the large population density of the city of Cleveland. This district is extremely likely to favor Democrats as 65,000 voters cast a democratic ballot, where only 13,000 cast a republican one. The candidates are Eric Brewer (R) and Shontel Brown (D).   

Ohio District 13 includes the entirety of Summit County, the northwestern quadrant of Stark County, and a very small portion of Portage County. The result of this House election is still quite a mystery, with the district being redrawn, as well as the Democratic candidate running in the primary unopposed. As the election becomes closer, polls should hopefully provide a better picture of how this district will turn come November 8th. The candidates include Madison Gilbert (R) and Emilia Sykes (D).  

Ohio District 14 includes Lake, Geauga, Trumbull, Portage, and Ashtabula counties. District 14 is in the same situation as District 13 due to the democratic candidate running in the primary unopposed. However, with this district being heavily located in rural counties, the predicted result would be in the Republicans’ favor. The candidates are David Joyce (R) and Matt Kilboy (D).  

The Ohio Senate seat that is up for grabs this time around is from current senator Republican Rob Portman, who is retiring. The primary ended up with JD Vance claiming the Republican nomination with a narrow victory of only 90,000 votes over candidates Josh Mandel and Matt Dolan. On the Democrats’ side, Tim Ryan handily won his primary by over 250,000 votes, winning every county in the state. Although the results from the 2020 election heavily favored former president Trump (R), the Senate races historically don’t necessarily match. Dating back to as early as the 1850’s, the Ohio US Senate seats have had significant members of both political parties elected.

Polling from August 2022 suggests that Democrat Tim Ryan is favored by 4% to Republican JD Vance, according to FiveThirtyEight. Granted, US politics have shown us that anything can happen in the next two months, so staying tuned to the current polling averages is important in trying to get a good picture of the election going into November. With the Senate divided at 50-50 evenly, this election will be crucial for the legislative goals for each of the parties.  

The Final election making the headlines this season is the Ohio Governor race. Normally, the incumbent Mike DeWine (R) would have no problem winning reelection, but these aren’t normal times. The main issues for DeWine are his stance on Abortion and Gun Control, both of which have been making nearly constant headlines in recent months in Ohio as well as across the country. DeWine passed a law earlier this year making any abortions after 6 weeks of conception illegal. DeWine has also passed a law allowing schoolteachers to be armed in the classroom with only 24 hours of training prior. Current polls still show DeWine in the lead substantially, but the lead has shrunk 17% from polls taken in spring 2022 until now.  

The election season is just heating up. Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis of the most crucial elections later in the fall.